1929 eller 2000

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1929 eller 2000

Inläggav Andreas » 10 aug 2007 10:07

Jag tror inte det och lägger upp för köp på måndag och tisdag.

Vad tror panelen?
Inlägg: 7
Blev medlem: 12 mar 2007 23:59
Ort: Helsingborg

Du har rätt, det är "bara" en fråga om tajming

Inläggav Svempa » 10 aug 2007 11:45

Visst, detta är ingen storkris. Ursprunget är den delvis kraschade bolånemarknaden i USA, som orsakat en (temporär) likviditetskris lite överallt, även på aktiemarknaden.

Har man pengar på depån och siktet inställt på ett fundamentalt bra bolag så ger den här typen av nedgång ett bra köptillfälle. MEN - som det heter - det är bra om man har en känsla för var botten ligger. Det kan mycket väl räcka med den nedgång vi haft, som f ö satt sina djupa spår även i mina depåer. Å andra sidan kan börsen tänkas gå ner sådär 10% till innan den vänder uppåt igen, trots de goda fundamenta som råder.

Själv sålde jag dock redan idag en del av mina XACT BEAR med tanken att använda pengarna till ett inköp av någon bra aktie till fyndpris.
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Inlägg: 605
Blev medlem: 02 jan 2007 17:38
Ort: Floda

Goda råd från USA

Inläggav Svempa » 10 aug 2007 16:35


August 10, 2007 8:50am EST

Good Friday morning...we begin the day with a sea of flashing red prices from overseas markets as they hover at or near their intraday lows, and domestic indices that are gapping down hard yet again.

How extreme is our current situation? In the 10+ year history of the S&P 500 tracking fund, SPY, I can find only one other time that we gapped down 1.5% yesterday and closed lower than the open, then gapped down at least 1% the next morning. That other instance was 9/21/01 - which marked the bottom after the 9/11 tragedy.

So obviously we're dealing with a very, very unusual situation here. With such a large gap down open after a hugely bad day yesterday, in the context of already-oversold intermediate-term conditions, my gut reaction is to buy - in size.

It always looks bad at the bottom, and the news is always terrible. But just because it looks bad doesn't mean it *is* the bottom, and I can't help but be put off by the recent trading activity.

Almost everything we've gone over during the past week has strongly suggested that it is, but virtually every one of the bullish precedent we went over told us that the low of the panic day (this past Monday at 1430 on the S&P 500 cash index) should not be violated, especially on a closing basis. There is no doubt that that is the target highlighted on traders' charts, and a violation of that is not good. About the only precedent for that kind of behavior (other than the periodic bear markets of the 1970's) is August 1998, when the indices had become oversold, bounced a bit, then suffered a few horrendous down days to end the month - and the bulk of the correction.

I haven't thought we'd be in for that type of scenario since the overwhelming number of precedents we'd looked at highlighted the end of August 1998 (after the big down days) as most similar to our current one. But if we cannot hold Monday's lows, it's impossible for me to rule out even more short-term pain ahead, simply because we would have so few historical similarities, even going back 40 years or more.

So in the short-term, I continue to pound the table that those who don't have to take risk here should not. This is one of the most combustible tapes we've seen in decades - both to the upside and downside - and it is being held hostage by news flow, pure and simple. Depending on what rumor makes the rounds during the day, we could just as easily swing 1% - 2% in either direction. Unless you're very aggressive and have a very short-term time frame, stay out.

I've been suggesting that the only other opportunity here is for those with a more intermediate-term time frame of at least one to three months. Because of the studies we've gone over, it seemed like we had hit a sweet spot for the initiation of long positions targeting that time frame.

I still don't think that's a bad idea if currently holding positions, but I would not look to add more at this point, even with the gap down open. We could surely reverse hard to the upside from here, in fact the few precedents we have would suggest that's the most likely case, but I think we would be best served to back off and just let the panic subside before committing anything more.

To see intra-day updates of our short-term indicators, click here for charts:

http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscribe ... apshot.php
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Inlägg: 605
Blev medlem: 02 jan 2007 17:38
Ort: Floda

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