http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Nehring/Deepwater2000.htm
med titeln
2000 Deepwater Discoveries: A Contextual Overview
I inledningen skriver författaren:
"Deepwater discoveries in 2000 fell back from the torrid pace set in 1999. Despite this moderate decline, 2000 was still the second best year ever for deepwater discoveries, both in terms of the number of new field discoveries and the amounts discovered."
och lite längre ner:
"Through 2000, depending on how much recent deepwater discoveries will grow once they begin production, approximately 10-12 billion barrels of crude oil have been discovered in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. More than half of this amount was discovered in the past three years.
If crude oil reserve additions in the deepwater continue at a rate of 1.0 to 1.25 billion barrels per year through 2005, by 2008 to 2010 crude oil production from the deepwater would reach levels of 3.0 to 3.5 million b/d. Coupled with a slow increase in NGL production, a stabilization in Alaskan crude production, and a slightly accelerating decline in the rest of domestic crude production, this increase would be sufficient to increase domestic oil production from 7.75 million b/d in 2000 to 9.25 - 9.50 million b/d in 2008-2010."
OK, det var prognosen, även om författaren har med en liten brasklapp där han reserverar sig för att framgångarna med prospekteringen måste fortsätta för att prognosen ska slå in.
Hur blev det då? Jo, så här:
Det ser inte ut som om produktionen skulle nå 9,25 till 9,5 milj fat/dag de närmaste åren, eller hur
?
Grafen är hämtad från IEA:s website, http://omrpublic.iea.org/countryresults ... it2=Submit .
